Red Sox aim to stay in playoff mix, take series from O's

Baseball Betting Lines

09/02/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Boston Red Sox have missed the playoffs only once in the previous seven years, but are in danger of being left out for the first time since the 2006 campaign.

The Red Sox are seven games off the wild card lead and eight games behind for the top spot in the American League East Division, and will shoot for a series win tonight against the division-foe Baltimore Orioles at Camden Yards. They were able to even the set with Wednesday's 9-6 come-from-behind victory in which Boston scored six runs during the seventh inning.

Marco Scutaro hit a two-run homer, Victor Martinez plated a run with a double and Adrian Beltre capped the scoring with a three-run blast for the Red Sox, who rebounded from Tuesday's series opening loss and improved to 2-3 on a six- game road trip. J.D. Drew also homered in the win. Beltre needs three RBI for 1,000 in his career and leads the Red Sox with 91 for the season.

Jon Lester started for the victors and recorded the win, despite allowing eight hits and five runs over six innings. The lefty, who fanned 10 batters, is now 13-0 lifetime against the Orioles.

"I don't think it really matters how many losses in a row we have or wins," Lester said. "We just need to chip away and get some wins. It's obviously nice to come back tonight and do that."

Jonathan Papelbon posted a scoreless ninth for his 34th save.

Red Sox starter Daisuke Matsuzaka has allowed four runs in three straight and four of five starts, and is expected to take the mound Thursday night. He is 0-1 with a 5.31 earned run average in his last three trips to the hill and did not record a decision in his last start on August 21 versus Toronto.

The right-hander lasted eight innings and was reached for four runs and six hits with eight strikeouts. He has struck out at least six batters in four straight starts and is 8-4 in 19 outings this season. Matsuzaka, who is 4-2 in 11 road appearances this season, made his 2010 debut at Baltimore on May 1 and suffered the loss in the 12-9 decision. The Orioles posted seven runs -- six earned -- in 4 2/3 innings against the Japanese hurler.

Matsuzaka is 3-2 with a 5.65 ERA in seven career starts against the O's.

Baltimore scored four runs in the first inning and had a 5-3 lead before surrendering six runs in the seventh. Mark Hendrickson took the loss for his contributions to the explosion, as he allowed three runs in 1 1/3 innings.

Jake Arrieta tossed the first five innings and allowed three runs on six hits with five strikeouts, while Alfredo Simon was also touched for three runs in relief for the Orioles, who had a four-game winning streak halted.

"Jake battled his way through five innings and kept the damage to a minimum, but there are a lot of good players over there with a track record, and they make you pay for the mistakes you do make," Baltimore manager Buck Showalter said on the club's website.

Showalter is still one win away from 900 career victories. He will become the 64th manager in baseball history to achieve the feat.

Adam Jones drove in two runs in last night's loss, and both Ty Wigginton and Felix Pie finished with two hits and an RBI. Jones left the game in the seventh inning with back soreness, but should be able to play today. Jake Fox took over for Jones in the outfield.

Since losing five consecutive starts more than a month ago, Orioles starter Brad Bergesen has turned things around to the tune of a 3-0 mark with a 2.70 ERA in his last six starts, with his team going 5-1 in that span. He is slated to make his 25th appearance (23rd start) Thursday night.

In his most recent start at Angel Stadium last Friday, Bergesen held the homestanding Angels to only a run and four hits in eight innings. The righty improved to 6-9 with a 5.55 ERA this season.

Bergesen is 1-1 in two starts against Boston this season and 1-2 lifetime with a 3.71 ERA in four starts in this series.

Boston and Baltimore have split 14 matchups this season.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.

Academy Award Betting Odds for Best Picture Offer Great Value

If there is any category that is not an obvious win for any one nominee in this year's Academy Awards, it would be for Best Picture.  Sure the Departed is a 5/7 favorite, but that's hardly anything when we look at Helen Mirren and her "out-of-reach" 1 to 40 odds (which means you would win a whopping $1 for every $40 bet).

For value, take a look at MySportsbook.com Oscars betting odds on my personal favorite, The Queen - a remarkable 12 to 1 long shot.  The film hasn't won any pre-awards for Best Picture (compared to The Departed and Little Miss Sunshine), but there is a tremendous following and it is a strong enough film to warrant a surprise win.

TV Guide advises Oscar watchers should be cautioned not to discount the  drama "Babel" with its strong social themes about overcoming communication gaps among people of different cultures.

"While 'Babel' lost several guild awards to 'Sunshine' and 'Departed,'  it still enjoys loyal support, and historically Oscar voters favor dramas with social messages over comedies like 'Sunshine' and violent crime movies like 'Departed'."

"It hasn't done well in the guilds, which means there isn't much industry support," said Tom O'Neil of awards site TheEnvelope.com, "But several critics are expecting it to win, and that gets my attention." Babel had 7 to 2 odds at press time.

Who is to say independently produced Little Miss Sunshine won't be this year's Crash.  Last year, Crash won for Best Motion Picture, shocking those who bet on gay cowboy flick, Brokeback Mountain, as the favorite to win. 

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.